Changes in Tobacco Dependence and Association With Onset and Progression of Use by Product Type From Waves 1 to 3 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study.

INTRODUCTION: This study examined trajectories of tobacco dependence (TD) in relationship to changes in tobacco product use, and explored the effects of product-specific adding, switching, or discontinued use on dependence over time. AIMS AND METHODS: Data were analyzed from the first three waves from the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal study of adults and youth in the United States. Data included 9556 wave 1 (2013-2014) adult current established tobacco users aged 18 or older who completed all three interviews and had established use at ≥2 assessments. Mutually exclusive groups included: users of cigarettes only, e-cigarettes only, cigars only, hookah only, any smokeless only, cigarette + e-cigarette dual users, and other multiple product users. A validated 16-item scale assessed TD across product users. RESULTS: People who used e-cigarettes exclusively at wave 1 had small increases in TD through wave 3. Wave 1 multiple product users' TD decreased across waves. TD for all other wave 1 user groups remained about the same. For wave 1 cigarette only smokers, switching to another product was associated with lower levels of TD than smokers whose use stayed the same. Movement to no established use of any tobacco product was consistently associated with lower TD for all product users. CONCLUSIONS: Except for wave 1 e-cigarette only users (who experienced small increases in TD), TD among U.S. tobacco product users was stable over time, with daily users less likely to vary from baseline. IMPLICATIONS: The level of TD among most U.S. tobacco users was stable over the first three waves of the PATH Study and trends in levels of TD were predominantly unrelated to changes in patterns of continued product use. Stable levels of TD suggest a population at persistent risk of health impacts from tobacco. Wave 1 e-cigarette users experienced small increases in levels of TD over time, perhaps due to increases in quantity or frequency of their e-cigarette use or increasing efficiency of nicotine delivery over time.

Indicators of Tobacco Dependence Among Youth: Findings From Wave 1 (2013-2014) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Prior work established a measure of tobacco dependence (TD) among adults that can be used to compare TD across different tobacco products. We extend this approach to develop a common, cross-product metric for TD among youth. METHODS: One thousand one hundred and forty-eight youth aged 12-17 who used a tobacco product in the past 30 days were identified from 13 651 youth respondents in Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study. FINDINGS: Analyses confirmed a single primary latent construct underlying responses to TD indicators for all mutually exclusive tobacco product user groups. Differential Item Functioning analyses supported the use of 8 of 10 TD indicators for comparisons across groups. With TD levels anchored at 0.0 (standard deviation [SD] = 1.0) among cigarette only (n = 265) use group, mean TD scores were more than a full SD lower for e-cigarette only (n = 150) use group (mean = -1.09; SD = 0.64). Other single product use group (cigar, hookah, pipe, or smokeless; n = 262) on average had lower TD (mean = -0.60; SD = 0.84), and the group with the use of multiple tobacco products (n = 471) experienced similar levels of TD (mean = 0.14; SD = 0.78) as the cigarette only use group. Concurrent validity was established with product use frequency among all user groups. A subset of five TD items comprised a common metric permitting comparisons between youth and adults. CONCLUSION: The PATH Study Youth Wave 1 Interview provided psychometrically valid measures of TD that enable future regulatory investigations of TD across tobacco products and comparisons between youth and adult tobacco product use group. IMPLICATIONS: A measure of tobacco dependence (TD) has been established previously among adults to compare TD across tobacco products. This study established the validity of a similar, cross-product measure of TD among youth. Findings suggest a single latent TD construct underlying this measure, concurrent validity of the scale with product use frequency across different types of tobacco users, and a subset of common items that can be used to compare TD between youth and adults who use tobacco.

RETRACTED: Changes in Tobacco Dependence and Association With Onset and Progression of Use by Product Type From Wave 1 to Wave 3 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study.

INTRODUCTION: This study examined trajectories of tobacco dependence (TD) in relation to changes in tobacco product use and explored the effects of product-specific adding, switching, or discontinued use on dependence over time. AIMS AND METHODS: Data were analyzed from the first three waves of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal study of adults and youth in the United States. Data included 9556 Wave 1 (2013/2014) adult current established tobacco users who completed all three interviews and had established use at ≥2 assessments. Groups included cigarettes-only users, e-cigarettes-only users, cigars-only users, hookah-only users, any smokeless-only users, cigarette + e-cigarette dual users, and multiple product users. A validated 16-item scale assessed TD across product users. RESULTS: Wave 1 e-cigarette-only users' who maintained exclusive e-cigarette use increased levels of TD through Wave 3 as did those who added or switched to another product. Wave 1 multiple product users' TD decreased across waves. TD for all other Wave 1 user groups remained about the same. For Wave 1 cigarette-only smokers, switching to another product or moving to a pattern of no established use was associated with lower levels of TD than smokers whose use stayed the same. Movement to no established use of any tobacco product was consistently associated with lower TD for all other product users. CONCLUSIONS: Except for Wave 1 e-cigarette-only users, TD among US tobacco product users was stable over time, with daily users less likely to vary from baseline. IMPLICATIONS: The level of TD among most US tobacco users was stable over the first three waves of the PATH Study and trends in levels of TD were predominantly unrelated to changes in patterns of continued product use. Stable levels of TD suggest a population at persistent risk of health impacts from tobacco. Wave 1 e-cigarette users, including those maintaining exclusive e-cigarette use, experienced increasing levels of TD over time, perhaps because of increases in quantity or frequency of their e-cigarette product use or increasing efficiency of nicotine delivery over time.

Improved motivation and readiness to quit shortly after lung cancer screening: Evidence for a teachable moment.

BACKGROUND: For patients at high risk for lung cancer, screening using low-dose computed tomography (lung cancer screening [LCS]) is recommended. The purpose of this study was to examine whether screening may serve as a teachable moment for smoking-related outcomes. METHODS: In a smoking-cessation trial, participants (N = 843) completed 2 phone interviews before randomization: before LCS (T0) and after LCS (T1). By using logistic and linear regression, the authors examined teachable moment variables (perceived risk, lung cancer worry) and outcomes (readiness, motivation, and cigarettes per day [CPD]). RESULTS: Participants were a mean ± SD age of 63.7 ± 5.9 years, had 47.8 ± 7.1 pack-years of smoking, 35.2% had a high school diploma or General Educational Development (high school equivalency) degree or less, and 42.3% were undergoing their first scan. Between T0 and T1, 25.7% of participants increased readiness to quit, 9.6% decreased readiness, and 64.7% reported no change (P < .001). Motivation to quit increased (P < .05) and CPD decreased between assessments (P < .001), but only 1.3% self-reported quitting. Compared with individuals who reported no lung cancer worry/little worry, extreme worry was associated with readiness to quit in the next 30 days (odds ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.0) and with higher motivation (b = 0.83; P < .001) at T1. Individuals undergoing a baseline (vs annual) scan were more ready to quit in the next 30 days (odds ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.5). CONCLUSIONS: During the brief window between registering for LCS and receiving the results, the authors observed that very few participants quit smoking, but a significant proportion improved on readiness and motivation to quit, particularly among individuals who were undergoing their first scan and those who were extremely worried about lung cancer. These results indicate that providing evidence-based tobacco treatment can build upon this teachable moment.

Change in amount smoked and readiness to quit among patients undergoing lung cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: There is mixed evidence regarding whether undergoing computed tomography lung cancer screening (LCS) can serve as a "teachable moment" that impacts smoking behavior and attitudes. The study aim was to assess whether the standard procedures of undergoing LCS and receiving free and low-cost evidence-based cessation resources impacted short-term smoking-related outcomes. METHODS: Participants were smokers (N=87) who were registered to undergo lung screening and were enrolled in a cessation intervention trial. We conducted two phone interviews, both preceding trial randomization: the first interview was conducted prior to lung screening, and the second interview followed lung screening (median =12.5 days post-screening) and participants' receipt of their screening results. The interviews assessed demographic characteristics, interest in evidence-based cessation intervention methods, and tobacco-related characteristics, including cigarettes per day and readiness to quit. Participants received minimal evidence-based cessation resources following the pre-lung screening interview. RESULTS: Participants were 60.3 years old, 56.3% female, and reported a median of 40 pack-years. Participants were interested in using several evidence-based strategies, including counseling from a healthcare provider (76.7%) and receiving nicotine replacement therapy (69.8%). Pre-lung screening, 25.3% smoked ≤10 cigarettes per day, and 29.9% were ready to quit in the next 30 days. We conducted two McNemar binomial distribution tests to assess change from pre- to post-screening. At the post-lung screening assessment, approximately three-quarters reported no change on these variables. However, 23.3% reported smoking fewer cigarettes per day, whereas 4.7% reported smoking more cigarettes per day (McNemar P=0.002), and 17.2% reported increased readiness to quit, whereas 6.9% reported decreased readiness to quit (McNemar P=0.078). CONCLUSIONS: Following receipt of cessation resources and completion of lung screening, most participants reported no change in smoking outcomes. However, there was a significant reduction in cigarettes per day, and there was a trend for increased readiness to quit. This setting may provide a potential "teachable moment" and an opportunity to assist smokers with quitting. However, more proactive and intensive interventions will be necessary to capitalize on these changes and to support abstinence in the long-term.

Youth Vaping and Tobacco Use in Context in the United States: Results From the 2018 National Youth Tobacco Survey.

INTRODUCTION: According to the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS), youth e-cigarette use (vaping) rose between 2017 and 2018. Frequency of vaping and concurrent past 30-day (p30d) use of e-cigarettes and tobacco products have not been reported. METHODS: We analyzed the 2018 NYTS (N = 20 189) for vaping among all students (middle and high school; 6-12th grades; 9-19 years old) by frequency of vaping, exclusive vaping, p30d poly-product use (vaping and use of one or more tobacco product), and any past tobacco product use. RESULTS: In 2018, 81.4% of students had not used any tobacco or vapor product in the p30d, and 86.2% had not vaped in the p30d. Among all students, of the 13.8% vaped in the p30d, just over half vaped on ≤5 days (7.0%), and roughly a quarter each vaped on 6-19 days (3.2%) and on 20+ days (3.6%). Almost three quarters of p30d vapers (9.9%) reported past or concurrent tobacco use and the remainder (3.9%) were tobacco naïve. 2.8% of students were tobacco naïve and vaped on ≤5 days; 0.7% were tobacco-naïve and vaped on 6-19 days, and 0.4% were tobacco-naïve and vaped on 20+ days. CONCLUSIONS: Vaping increased among US youth in 2018 over 2017. The increases are characterized by patterns of low p30d vaping frequency and high poly-product use, and a low prevalence of vaping among more frequent but tobacco naïve vapers. IMPLICATIONS: Results underscore the importance of including the full context of use patterns. The majority of vapers (60.0%-88.9% by use frequency) were concurrent p30d or ever tobacco users. About 4% of students were tobacco naïve and vaped in the p30d, but few (0.4%) vaped regularly on 20 or more days. Reporting youth vaping data with frequency and tobacco product co-use will give public health decision-makers the best possible information to protect public health.

Intensive Longitudinal Study of the Relationship Between Cigalike E-cigarette Use and Cigarette Smoking Among Adult Cigarette Smokers Without Immediate Plans to Quit Smoking.

INTRODUCTION: This study examined the association between the introduction of an e-cigarette and subsequent change in cigarette smoking among smokers who were not immediately interested in quitting. AIMS AND METHODS: The Moment Study was a 21-day intensive longitudinal study with an online follow-up survey at 30 days. After observing baseline cigarette smoking for 1 week, participants received 10 cigalike e-cigarettes on study days 6 and 13. Participants reported cigarettes per day, e-cigarette puffs per day, and e-cigarette satisfaction using text-message-based surveys. RESULTS: The sample of 96 daily smokers was majority female (53.1%), African American (67.7%), and non-Hispanic (95.8%). When e-cigarettes were provided (day 6), average cigarettes per day dropped by 1.82 cigarettes (p < .0001). The within-person e-cigarette puff effect on daily cigarette smoking was significantly negative (ß = -0.023; p = .005); a participant who consumed 100 more e-cigarette puffs in a day than usual for that person was expected to smoke 2.3 fewer cigarettes that day, but this was only true for non-menthol smokers (p = .006). Smokers older than 45 and those who started smoking at a younger age rated e-cigarettes as less satisfying (ps < .05). Participants with greater than the median reported satisfaction were 6.5 times more likely to use an e-cigarette at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Giving e-cigarettes to smokers who did not intend to quit reduced their cigarette smoking on days when they used e-cigarette more frequently, but this relationship did not hold for menthol smokers. Satisfaction with e-cigarette use was predictive of continued use 30 days later. IMPLICATIONS: A greater amount of cigalike e-cigarette use resulted in less smoking among adult daily smokers without immediate plans to quit, but a lack of nicotine delivery and satisfaction for these devices may have limited their utility as a replacement for cigarette smoking, especially among menthol smokers. The global concept of "satisfaction" may be an important driver of e-cigarette use among adult smokers.

Menthol and Mint Cigarettes and Cigars: Initiation and Progression in Youth, Young Adults and Adults in Waves 1-4 of the PATH Study, 2013-2017.

INTRODUCTION: This study examined in youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years), and adults (25+ years): (1) the prevalence of the first menthol cigarette and menthol/mint cigar use among new tobacco users; (2) association between the first menthol/mint use, subsequent tobacco use, and nicotine dependence ~1 year later compared with the first non-menthol/mint use. AIMS AND METHODS: Longitudinal analysis of data from Waves 1 to 4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study (2013-2017; 10 086 youth and 21 281 adults). Main outcome measures were past 12-month and past 30-day cigarette and cigar use, and nicotine dependence. RESULTS: Youth and young adult new cigarette users are more likely to smoke a menthol cigarette or indicate that they do not know the flavor compared with adults aged 25+. A greater proportion of adults aged 25+ first used menthol/mint-flavored cigars (13.4%) compared with youth (8.5%) and young adults (7.4%). Among young adults, first use of a menthol cigarette is associated with past 12-month use of cigarettes at the subsequent wave and first use of any menthol/mint-flavored cigars is associated with past 30-day use of these products at the subsequent wave in both youth and young adults. In youth and adults, there were no significant relationships between first use of a menthol/mint cigarette or cigar and nicotine dependence scores at a subsequent wave in multivariable analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The first use of menthol/mint cigarettes and cigars is associated with subsequent cigarette and cigar use in young people aged 12-24. IMPLICATIONS: This study examined the relationship between initiation with menthol cigarettes and menthol/mint cigars, subsequent tobacco use, and nicotine dependence in US youth, young adults, and adults who participated in Waves 1-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study. New use of menthol cigarettes was associated with greater past 12-month cigarette use in young adults and new use of menthol/mint-flavored cigars was associated with greater past 30-day cigar use in youth and young adults compared with non-menthol use. Initiation with menthol/mint cigarette and cigar products may lead to subsequent use of those products.

Role of e-cigarettes and pharmacotherapy during attempts to quit cigarette smoking: The PATH Study 2013-16.

BACKGROUND: More smokers report using e-cigarettes to help them quit than FDA-approved pharmacotherapy. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of e-cigarettes with future abstinence from cigarette and tobacco use. DESIGN: Cohort study of US sample, with annual follow-up. PARTICIPANTS: US adult (ages 18+) daily cigarette smokers identified at Wave 1 (W1; 2013-14) of the PATH Study, who reported a quit attempt before W2 and completed W3 (n = 2443). EXPOSURES: Use of e-cigarettes, pharmacotherapy (including nicotine replacement therapy), or no product for last quit attempt (LQA), and current daily e-cigarette use at W2. ANALYSIS: Propensity score matching (PSM) of groups using different methods to quit. OUTCOME MEASURES: 12+ months abstinence at W3 from cigarettes and from all tobacco (including e-cigarettes). 30+ days abstinence at W3 was a secondary outcome. RESULTS: Among daily smokers with an LQA, 23.5% used e-cigarettes, 19.3% used pharmacotherapy only (including NRT) and 57.2% used no product. Cigarette abstinence for 12+ months at W3 was ~10% in each group. Half of the cigarette abstainers in the e-cigarette group were using e-cigarettes at W3. Different methods to help quitting had statistically comparable 12+ month cigarette abstinence at W3 (e-cigarettes vs no product: Risk Difference (RD) = 0.01, 95% CI: -0.04 to 0.06; e-cigarettes vs pharmacotherapy: RD = 0.02, 95% CI:-0.04 to 0.09). Likewise, daily e-cigarette users at W2 did not show a cessation benefit over comparable no-e-cigarette users and this finding was robust to sensitivity analyses. Abstinence for 30+ days at W3 was also similar across products. LIMITATIONS: The frequency of e-cigarette use during the LQA was not assessed, nor was it possible to assess continuous abstinence from the LQA. CONCLUSION: Among US daily smokers who quit cigarettes in 2014-15, use of e-cigarettes in that attempt compared to approved cessation aids or no products showed similar abstinence rates 1-2 years later.

Young Adult Tobacco and E-cigarette Use Transitions: Examining Stability Using Multistate Modeling.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study was to describe tobacco and nicotine product use state transition probabilities among youth and young adults over time. METHODS: A national sample of young adult tobacco product users and nonusers between the ages of 18 and 34 years at baseline was surveyed at 6-month intervals for 3 years. Use and nonuse states were defined as mutually exclusive categories based on self-reported, past 30-day use of the various products. Never use, noncurrent use, and current use of combustible, noncombustible tobacco, and electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) products was assessed at each interval. A multistate model was fit to estimate transition probabilities between states and length of stay within each state. RESULTS: After 6 months, same-state transition probabilities were high for all use states (0.76-0.96), except for dual product use (0.48). After 3 years, transition probabilities were smaller and tended to converge toward combustible product use for baseline e-cigarette (0.42), combustible (0.51), and dual product users (0.52). Age was inversely associated with transition risk from never or noncurrent use to use of combustible or e-cigarette products. CONCLUSIONS: Never and noncurrent users, followed by combustible product users, were most likely to remain in those states throughout the 3-year observation interval. Users of any tobacco or e-cigarette product at baseline were most likely to transition to combustible product use or noncurrent use by the final follow-up. IMPLICATIONS: This study describes the probability of transitioning between various states of tobacco product use, including never and no current use, over a span of 3 years in a sample of young adults. This type of longitudinal description, which includes all tobacco product use states, is lacking in most studies that tend to focus on one or only a few products. The results suggest that it is important to assess outcomes over a sufficiently long period to capture true variability in patterns of product use.

Study protocol for a telephone-based smoking cessation randomized controlled trial in the lung cancer screening setting: The lung screening, tobacco, and health trial.

Lung cancer mortality can be reduced by 20% via low dose CT lung cancer screening (LCS) and treatment of early-stage disease. Providing tobacco use treatment to high risk cigarette smokers in the LCS setting may result in health benefits beyond the impact of LCS. As one of the nine trials in the National Cancer Institute's Smoking Cessation at Lung Examination (SCALE) collaboration, the goal of the Lung Screening, Tobacco, and Health (LSTH) trial is to develop a scalable and cost-effective cessation intervention for subsequent implementation by LCS programs. Guided by the RE-AIM Framework, the LSTH trial is a two-arm RCT (N = 1330) enrolling English- and Spanish-speaking smokers registered for LCS at one of seven collaborating sites. Participants are randomly assigned to Usual Care (UC; three proactive telephone counseling sessions/two weeks of nicotine patches) vs. Intensive Telephone Counseling (ITC; eight proactive sessions/eight weeks of nicotine patches, plus discussion of the LCS results to increase motivation to quit). Telephone counseling is provided by tobacco treatment specialists. To increase continuity of care, referring physicians are notified of participant enrollment and smoking status following the intervention. Outcomes include: 1) self-reported 7-day, 30-day, and sustained abstinence, and biochemically-verified at 3-, 6-, and 12-months post-randomization, 2) reach and engagement of the interventions, and 3) cost-effectiveness of the interventions. The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) will model long-term impacts of six SCALE trials on the cost per life year saved, quality-adjusted life years saved, lung cancer mortality reduction, and population mortality. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: The trial is registered at clinical trials.gov: NCT03200236.

Re: Disregarding the impact of nicotine on the developing brain when evaluating costs and benefits of noncombustible nicotine products.

This Letter to the Editor is in response to a letter from Ms. Flannery, titled, "Disregarding the impact of nicotine on the developing brain when evaluating costs and benefits of noncombustible nicotine products". In our response, we address some concerns raised by Ms. Flannery, and reiterate our position in our original article. In particular, we underline the importance of a rational public health calculus that weighs beneficial and harmful consequences of policies related to noncombustible nicotine product (NNP) use. We further emphasize the need to correct misperceptions about relative risk of different products to encourage smokers to switch to NNPs. Lastly, we are explicit about our assertion that no use of any nicotine-containing products is the only way to avoid harm at any age, but that we must view this issue pragmatically for the benefit of public health.

Preventing Smoking Progression in Young Adults: the Concept of Prevescalation.

As adolescents cross the threshold to young adulthood, they encounter more opportunities to engage in or accelerate previously discouraged or prohibited behaviors. Young adults, therefore, are more apt to initiate cigarette smoking and, more importantly, to accelerate their use if they tried and experimented as an adolescent. Preventing the escalation and entrenchment of smoking in the young adult years is critically important to reducing tobacco's long-term health toll. However, traditional interventions for youth have focused on preventing smoking initiation, and interventions for adults have focused on smoking cessation; both have failed to address the needs of young adults. We introduce the concept of "prevescalation" to capture the need and opportunity to prevent the escalation of risk behaviors that typically occur during young adulthood, with a focus on the example of cigarette smoking. Prevescalation negates the notion that prevention has failed if tobacco experimentation occurs during adolescence and focuses on understanding and interrupting transitions between experimentation with tobacco products and established tobacco use that largely occur during young adulthood. However, since risk behaviors often co-occur in young people, the core concept of prevescalation may apply to other behaviors that co-occur and become harder to change in later adulthood. We present a new framework for conceptualizing, developing, and evaluating interventions that better fit the unique behavioral, psychosocial, and socio-environmental characteristics of the young adult years. We discuss the need to target this transitional phase, what we know about behavioral pathways and predictors of cigarette smoking, potential intervention considerations, and research challenges.

Transitions in electronic cigarette use among adults in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, Waves 1 and 2 (2013-2015).

INTRODUCTION: This study assessed patterns of e-cigarette and cigarette use from Wave 1 to Wave 2 among adult e-cigarette users at Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study. METHODS: We examined changes in e-cigarette use frequency at Wave 2 among adult e-cigarette users at Wave 1 (unweighted n=2835). Adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) were calculated using a predicted marginal probability approach to assess correlates of e-cigarette discontinuance and smoking abstinence at Wave 2. RESULTS: Half (48.8%) of adult e-cigarette users at Wave 1 discontinued their use of e-cigarettes at Wave 2. Among dual users of e-cigarettes and cigarettes at Wave 1, 44.3% maintained dual use, 43.5% discontinued e-cigarette use and maintained cigarette smoking and 12.1% discontinued cigarette use at Wave 2, either by abstaining from cigarette smoking only (5.1%) or discontinuing both products (7.0%). Among dual users at Wave 1, daily e-cigarette users were more likely than non-daily users to report smoking abstinence at Wave 2 (aPR=1.40, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.91). Using a customisable device (rather than a non-customisable one) was not significantly related to smoking abstinence at Wave 2 (aPR=1.14, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.60). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that e-cigarette use patterns are highly variable over a 1-year period. This analysis provides the first nationally representative estimates of transitions among US adult e-cigarette users. Future research, including additional waves of the PATH Study, can provide further insight into long-term patterns of e-cigarette use critical to understanding the net population health impact of e-cigarettes in USA.

Longitudinal Tobacco Use Transitions Among Adolescents and Young Adults: 2014-2016.

INTRODUCTION: Among youth, the frequency and prevalence of using more than one tobacco (small cigar, cigarette, and hookah) or nicotine-containing product (e-cigarettes-ENDS) are changing. These shifts pose challenges for regulation, intervention, and prevention campaigns because of scant longitudinal data on the stability of use patterns in this changing product landscape. METHODS: A nationally representative longitudinal survey of 15- to 21-year olds (n = 15,275) was used to describe transitions between never use, noncurrent use, and past 30-day use of combustible tobacco, e-cigarettes (ENDS), and dual use of both kinds of products. A multistate model was fit to observations collected every 6 months across 2.5 years to estimate the probability of transitions between states (TPs), the average time in state (sojourn time), and the effect of age on transitions. RESULTS: Current state strongly predicted future state over time intervals of 1 year or less, but only weakly predicted future state at longer intervals: TP to noncurrent use was higher for ENDS-only than combustible-only users over a 6-month interval but was similar for both groups over a 2-year interval. Sojourn time was significantly longer for combustible-only (0.52 years) and dual use (0.55 years) than ENDS-only use (0.27 years); older youth were more likely than younger youth to stay combustible tobacco users or noncurrent users. CONCLUSIONS: The dynamics of transitions between combustible tobacco products and ENDS in a population of youth and young adults suggest that policy and prevention efforts must consider the frequent changes and instability over a 1-year or less time period in use patterns among young people. IMPLICATIONS: The study addresses an urgent need in public health for timely information on how youth and young adults use tobacco and nicotine products. We found that youth, particularly adolescents, moved frequently between using ENDS and combustible tobacco products either alone or together. Importantly, the utility of current-use states for predicting future use states declined for time horizons longer than 1 year. Our results demonstrate a need for caution in interpreting product transitions. Longitudinal data with frequent observations and coverage of a wide range of possible product types is required to fully characterize usage patterns in youth.

Associations of risk factors of e-cigarette and cigarette use and susceptibility to use among baseline PATH study youth participants (2013-2014).

INTRODUCTION: Improved understanding of the distribution of traditional risk factors of cigarette smoking among youth who have ever used or are susceptible to e-cigarettes and cigarettes will inform future longitudinal studies examining transitions in use. METHODS: Multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted using data from youth (ages 12-17 years) who had ever heard of e-cigarettes at baseline of the PATH Study (n = 12,460) to compare the distribution of risk factors for cigarette smoking among seven mutually exclusive groups based on ever cigarette/e-cigarette use and susceptibility status. RESULTS: Compared to committed never users, youth susceptible to e-cigarettes, cigarettes, or both had increasing odds of risk factors for cigarette smoking, with those susceptible to both products at highest risk, followed by cigarettes and e-cigarettes. Compared to e-cigarette only users, dual users had higher odds of nearly all risk factors (aOR range = 1.6-6.8) and cigarette only smokers had higher odds of other (non-e-cigarette) tobacco use (aOR range = 1.5-2.3), marijuana use (aOR = 1.9, 95%CI = 1.4-2.5), a high GAIN substance use score (aOR = 1.9, 95%CI = 1.1-3.4), low academic achievement (aOR range = 1.6-3.4), and exposure to smoking (aOR range = 1.8-2.1). No differences were observed for externalizing factors (depression, anxiety, etc.), sensation seeking, or household use of non-cigarette tobacco. CONCLUSIONS: Among ever cigarette and e-cigarette users, dual users had higher odds of reporting traditional risk factors for smoking, followed by single product cigarette smokers and e-cigarette users. Understanding how e-cigarette and cigarette users differ may inform youth tobacco use prevention efforts and advise future studies assessing probability of progression of cigarette and e-cigarette use.

Smoking Trajectory Classes and Impact of Social Smoking Identity in Two Cohorts of U.S. Young Adults.

This study describes cigarette smoking trajectories, the influence of social smoker self-identification (SSID), and correlates of these trajectories in two cohorts of U.S. young adults: a sample from the Chicago metropolitan area (Social Emotional Contexts of Adolescent and Young Adult Smoking Patterns [SECAP], n = 893) and a national sample (Truth Initiative Young Adult Cohort Study [YA Cohort], n = 1,491). Using latent class growth analyses and growth mixture models, five smoking trajectories were identified in each sample: in SECAP: nonsmoking (n = 658, 73.7%), declining smoking (n = 20, 2.2%), moderate/stable smoking (n = 114, 12.8%), high/stable smoking (n = 79, 8.9%), and escalating smoking (n = 22, 2.5%); and in YA Cohort: nonsmoking (n = 1,215, 81.5%), slowly declining smoking (n = 52, 3.5%), rapidly declining smoking (n = 50, 3.4%), stable smoking (n = 139, 9%), and escalating smoking (n = 35, 2.4%). SSID was most prevalent in moderate/stable smoking (35.5% SECAP), rapidly declining smoking (25.2% YA Cohort), and nonsmoking. Understanding nuances of how smoking identity is formed and used to limit or facilitate smoking behavior in young adults will allow for more effective interventions to reduce tobacco use.

Transitions in Tobacco Product Use by U.S. Adults between 2013⁻2014 and 2014⁻2015: Findings from the PATH Study Wave 1 and Wave 2.

In 2013⁻2014, nearly 28% of adults in the United States (U.S.) were current tobacco users with cigarettes the most common product used and with nearly 40% of tobacco users using two or more tobacco products. We describe overall change in prevalence of tobacco product use and within-person transitions in tobacco product use in the U.S. between 2013⁻2014 and 2014⁻2015 for young adults (18⁻24 years) and older adults (25+ years). Data from Wave 1 (W1, 2013⁻2014) and Wave 2 (W2, 2014⁻2015) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study were analyzed (N = 34,235). Tobacco product types were categorized into: (1) combustible (cigarettes, cigars, pipe tobacco, hookah), (2) noncombustible (smokeless tobacco, snus pouches, dissolvable tobacco), and (3) electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). Transitions for individual combustible-product types, and for single- and multiple-product use, were also considered. Overall prevalence of current tobacco use decreased from 27.6% to 26.3%. Among W1 non-tobacco users, 88.7% of young adults and 95.8% of older adults were non-tobacco users at W2. Among W1 tobacco users, 71.7% of young adults transitioned, with 20.7% discontinuing use completely, and 45.9% of older adults transitioned, with 12.5% discontinuing use completely. Continuing with/transitioning toward combustible product(s), particularly cigarettes, was more common than continuing with/transitioning toward ENDS. Tobacco use behaviors were less stable among young adults than older adults, likely reflecting greater product experimentation among young adults. Relative stability of cigarette use compared to other tobacco products (except older adult noncombustible use) demonstrates high abuse liability for cigarettes.

Correlates of Transitions in Tobacco Product Use by U.S. Adult Tobacco Users between 2013⁻2014 and 2014⁻2015: Findings from the PATH Study Wave 1 and Wave 2.

More than half of adult tobacco users in the United States (U.S.) transitioned in tobacco product use between 2013⁻2014 and 2014⁻2015. We examine how characteristics of adult tobacco users in the U.S. relate to transitions in tobacco product use. Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data were analyzed from 12,862 adult current tobacco users who participated in Wave 1 (W1, 2013⁻2014) and Wave 2 (W2, 2014⁻2015). Three types of transitions were examined-(1) adding tobacco product(s); (2) switching to non-cigarette tobacco product(s); and (3) discontinuing all tobacco use-among those currently using: (1) any tobacco product; (2) cigarettes only (i.e., exclusive cigarette); and (3) cigarettes plus another tobacco product(s) (i.e., poly-cigarette). Multinomial logistic regression analyses determined relative risk of type of transition versus no transition as a function of demographic and tobacco use characteristics. Transitions in tobacco product use among adult tobacco users were common overall, but varied among different demographic groups, including by age, sex, sexual orientation, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and poverty level. Further, cigarette smokers with higher dependence scores were more likely to add product(s) and less likely to discontinue tobacco use compared to those with low dependence scores. That high nicotine dependence is a barrier to discontinuing tobacco use adds evidence to support policy to lower nicotine content of cigarettes and to evaluate new products for their potential to reduce cigarette use.